You wrote: But it's hard to say to an author, "Look, this is just the right novel at the wrong time."
I'm wondering: Is one reason this is hard to say because it's something an author should be aware of without needing to be told? (That one should not try to market a hurricane story while FEMA is still muddling things in the news, for example.)
No, it's hard to say because it's hard to tell a writer you're killing their literary baby because of some market-related issue.
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The good news is the market changes. Keep fine-tuning and have several works going at once. Sooner or later, the tide will swing in your favor if you don't give up.
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